Entries tagged with “high-yield”
Articles
3 articles found for high-yield:
- Disinflation – The How and Why of it
In economics, fluctuations in inflation rates can significantly influence the financial landscape of businesses. While inflation tends to erode purchasing power, disinflation – a slowdown in the rate of price increases – presents a different set of challenges, particularly for companies seeking financing. As disinflation alters market dynamics, it can have positive and negative repercussions for businesses. Understanding these implications is crucial for navigating the intricacies of corporate finance and strategizing for sustainable growth.
- The Current Real Estate Turmoil in China
China’s real estate sector is in turmoil due to various factors, ranging from low investment to declining trade numbers. It has far-reaching implications and is threatening the country’s economic growth. Therefore, the government has undertaken certain policy measures to limit the damages. However, a more extensive plan is needed to deal with this issue effectively.
- Millets – The New Super Crop
Millets, often referred to as "food grains of the poor," are grown and consumed worldwide. Currently, there is a renewed interest in millets due to their numerous health benefits, low environmental impact, and adaptability to diverse growing conditions. In fact, the United Nations declared 2023 as the “International Year of Millets”, highlighting the importance of these crops for food security and sustainable development. This is expected to increase the demand for millets globally and create new opportunities for farmers and entrepreneurs in the millet value chain.
Special Reports
5 special reports found for high-yield:
- High Yield - Europe Spotlight
European HY bond market returns declined in YTD 2022, owing to heightened geopolitical tensions and rising interest rate risks. Issuers largely stayed on the sidelines in 2022 due to higher refinancing costs. Despite recession fears, the 10-year–2-year European spread steepened in 2022, in contrast to the US curve inversion. That said, the Eurozone recession is likely to stem from energy supply concerns owing to the Russia-Ukraine crisis and not from ECB tightening its monetary policy. Notably, S&P expects the European high yield corporate default rate to rise to 3.0% by March 2023 from 0.7% as of March 2022.
- High Yield – US Spotlight
After recording a plunge in the US high yield bond returns in 2022, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy stance to tame inflation proved crucial in driving asset prices in 2023. The possibility of a soft-landing, where the US Fed could afford to slowdown economy and avoid a recession, has favored higher-beta fixed income assets such as the US speculative grade corporate bonds. We observed this in 9M’23, where the US high yield corporate bond Index generated returns at ~6% whereas the US Investment Grade Bond Index remained flat. Barring Equity and Energy, the US high yield corporate bonds outperformed other asset classes like the US treasuries, gold, and metals. As recessionary fears subsided, spreads across all rating categories of the US high yield bonds (i.e., BB, B, CCC and lower) have tightened. However, due to higher borrowing costs, the number of High Yield Corporate Bond issuances remains below the five-year average. Notably, consumer discretionary and healthcare sectors remain challenged by multiple headwinds, such as muted consumer demand, pricing pressures, high labor costs, and rising input costs. The impact is witnessed from the fact that a major chunk of bankruptcy protection filings has been in these sectors. Overall, bankruptcies in YTD Aug’23 have surpassed 2021 and 2022 levels. We still see value in the real estate, materials, and utilities sector, which recorded relatively lower bankruptcies in 2023.
- High Yield – US Spotlight
Rising Inflation, supply-chain disruptions, and tightening financial conditions have created a negative sentiment amongst the investors. In Year-To-Date 2022, the US High Yield funds witnessed net outflows of $33.8 billion. Year-To-Date July 2022 returns of major asset classes, including HY, were significantly negative. Equities and Emerging Markets have underperformed, compared to debt and developed markets, respectively, while oil markets are a clear winner. On the risk front, spreads have widened highlighting the rising credit risk. The spreads of CCC & lower rated bonds are trending over 1,200 bps. As cost of borrowing increases, corporates have struggled to refinance and/or issue new debt resulting in a substantial decline in high yield issuances in YTD 2022. Furthermore, Federal Reserves’ aggressive stance to hike rates and abate inflation, could have negative implications on growth. The most widely tracked 10Y-2Y US Treasury spread has entered negative territory in July as fears of recessions grip the market. High financing costs and weak cash flows could lead to increased number of companies filing for relief under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The high-risk scenario, however, represents high return opportunities. Investors might stay away from riskier CCC & lower rated bonds and diligently look towards BB / B rated bond for higher yields.
- High Yield - Europe Spotlight
The European HY market rebounded in 2023, with benchmark HY index generating YTD 6.1% returns. Amid rising interest rates, HY bond returns outperformed IG returns due to attractive yields in the short term. The European HY issuance grew 15% YoY with total issuance climbing to EUR 31 bn during YTD Aug 2023. However, the Eurozone market will continue to face periods of elevated stress and volatility over the near-to-intermediate term due to prohibitive rates policy by global central banks. Europe fell into technical recession early this year amid the shock of high food and energy prices. Moreover, 10-year-to-2-year spread, a technical indicator, has also been inverted since Nov 2022. As per Fitch, the last 12-month default rate for Eurozone High Yield stood at 1.6% in 1H 2023 and is expected to rise to 2.5% by end-2023 and 4.0% by end-2024. That said, HY companies with stronger liquidity and cash flow generation are well positioned to survive the economic uncertainty.
- Q2 2023 Global Macro Report
Q2 posted a slowdown in global economic growth along with strong returns in risk assets. The IMF expects global growth to be lower in 2023 than 2022 for most advanced countries. It also expects headline inflation to decline owing to the aggressive monetary policies of major central banks, but core inflation may decline slowly. Chinese economic recovery seemed to have run out of steam after the initial reopening thrust, as shown by the decline in inflation, retail sales and PMI numbers.
Regarding asset class returns, equities rallied during Q2 due to strong corporate earnings in Q1, slowing inflation, a resilient US economy, and the AI theme. China’s sluggish recovery led emerging market equities to underperform developed market equities. Bonds gave a mixed performance with most yields increasing to price-in high rate expectations as central banks continued their hawkish policies. High yield bonds performed well despite their historically low yields. The US Dollar strengthened while gold price declined as the US Federal Reserve increased rates. Oil prices fell as expectations of a global economic slowdown loomed over investors.