Q2 2023 Global Macro Report

Q2 posted a slowdown in global economic growth along with strong returns in risk assets. The IMF expects global growth to be lower in 2023 than 2022 for most advanced countries. It also expects headline inflation to decline owing to the aggressive monetary policies of major central banks, but core inflation may decline slowly. Chinese economic recovery seemed to have run out of steam after the initial reopening thrust, as shown by the decline in inflation, retail sales and PMI numbers.

Regarding asset class returns, equities rallied during Q2 due to strong corporate earnings in Q1, slowing inflation, a resilient US economy, and the AI theme. China’s sluggish recovery led emerging market equities to underperform developed market equities. Bonds gave a mixed performance with most yields increasing to price-in high rate expectations as central banks continued their hawkish policies. High yield bonds performed well despite their historically low yields. The US Dollar strengthened while gold price declined as the US Federal Reserve increased rates. Oil prices fell as expectations of a global economic slowdown loomed over investors.