Yellow peas, other imports feed Canadian economy, shrink trade gap

“Canada’s export growth was considerably higher in March than was expected, with the trade deficit narrowing for a second consecutive month to $135 million from a revised $1.08 billion in February,” Vishal Kumar Manoria told Toronto Business Daily. Manoria, an assistant manager at global research firm Aranca, has researched various sectors and markets in the Middle East and Europe for leading asset management and private equity firms.

Manoria cited both natural gas and coal exports, and “a substantial pickup in commodity prices” in recent months.

Manoria said although the rise may not provide much support to gross domestic product (GDP) numbers from the first quarter of this year, it should “float through” to a bigger rise in the second quarter and beyond.

“We believe that the continuing recovery of U.S. economy, a strong rise in commodity prices and the relatively low value of the Canadian dollar should provide strong support to export growth going forward,” Manoria said, suggesting that the impact of these positive forces should also allow for Canada achieving a target of 6 per cent annual growth in exports, a standard set by the country's export bank. 

However, he said, changes in U.S. trade policy, including North American Free Trade Agreement re-negotiation, may result in lower-than-perceived growth for Canada, since the total trade with the U.S. is roughly 40 per cent of the country’s GDP.