Indian Rupee: Trade Deficit, Capital Flows & Global Dollar Cycles

Published on 10 Dec, 2025

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A widening trade deficit, slowing FDI, and a strong dollar cycle are tightening the screws on the rupee. With FPIs back in net selling mode in 2025 amid tighter global liquidity, INR direction will remain driven by USD strength, global risk sentiment, crude prices, and RBI intervention.

Sudhir Aggarwal

Senior Analyst, Investment Research & Analytics

Neha Agarwal

Manager, Investment Research & Analytics

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Indian Rupee: Trade Deficit, Capital Flows & Global Dollar Cycles

Sudhir Aggarwal

Neha Agarwal

Aranca is a global research analytics and advisory firm with over 20 years of experience in helping organizations take strategic business and investment decisions fearlessly and with utmost conviction.