Risk Alert & Early Warning Report March 2026

The ‘Risk Alert & Early Warning Report’ is a systematic cross-asset framework that screens 65+ US high yield corporate bonds for early-stage default signals. The report triangulates fixed income stress metrics, including multi-horizon Z-spread widening, LQA score compression, and modified duration exposure, with equity signals such as stock price drawdowns and abnormal options volume. The latest edition identifies three structural themes: persistent spread widening in names where ratings have not yet caught up with market pricing; broad liquidity deterioration signaling elevated exit risk; and a pocket of spread compression candidates offering selective carry opportunities. The report is designed to help asset managers front-run ratings action, prioritize research bandwidth, and manage portfolio risk at the issuer level.