Israel-Iran War Crisis: Impact on the Global Markets

Four weeks into the largest oil supply disruption in history. Hormuz closed, 40+ energy facilities destroyed, IEA calling it worse than 1973 and 1979 combined and markets are still pricing it anticipating an immediate restart of a shuttered Ras Laffan or un-damage a bombed Jebel Ali port. The credit market sees through it: HY spreads widening, GCC corporate bonds at the bottom of the EM table, Bahrain's CDS accelerating toward levels that demand a formal support package, and a IG-over-HY, TIPS-over-nominals, exporters-over-importers regime that rewards quality and punishes complacency.