GCC Real Estate Debt Market: Slowing Issuance, Mounting Credit Pressures

GCC real estate debt market is witnessing a pronounced shift towards selective funding, with credit quality, refinancing costs and cash-flow resilience increasingly shaping investor appetite.  Issuance declined 46.8% YoY to USD 3.4 billion in 9M 2026, as regional conflict heightened investor caution, construction cost pressures and project execution risks. While the back-ended maturity profile provides near-term flexibility, maturities concentrated from 2029 onwards increase exposure to higher refinancing costs. Rising interest rates have limited the benefits of normalised IG spreads, while HY issuers face additional pressure from sustained spread widening. This growing credit divergence favours issuers with stronger liquidity, recurring income and diversified funding access, while highly leveraged developers remain more vulnerable to refinancing pressures and delays in converting development backlogs into cash.